However, based on BBC's analysis of progress, keeping temperature rise to 2°C now seems almost likely. Announcements from COP today suggest that temperature increase could even be kept to 1.5°C! In his analysis Matt McGrath does point out that there is still uncertainty as to how this will be met, but the sounds coming out of COP21 are fantastic.
So why was my opinion of the keeping temperature rise to 2°C two days ago so relatively pessimistic? There are one of two options. Firstly, I greatly underestimated the ability of undeveloped countries to not further increase their emissions and even start to decrease them relatively soon, even with huge amounts of money from the developed world. Secondly, that the climate model used for these predictions is different to the one we used in our seminar, and hence the huge contributions that were required in our seminar to keep to a 2°C increase are not the same magnitude as in the model whose results are being reported. As with all climate modelling, the immense complexity of the system and our relatively poor knowledge of responses mean different modelling techniques can produce different results.
Regardless, whichever of the two reasons for my misplaced opinion on the success of COP21, I would love to be wrong and have countries sign a deal to stop dramatic impacts being felt worldwide from climate change by keeping to the seemingly golden 2°C target.
It would certainly keep these guys happy...
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I think that if we were all a bit more optimistic about climate change then people, businesses and governments would perhaps be a bit more inclined to reduce their emissions as they would feel they would be having a meaningful impact.
ReplyDeleteYes perhaps that's true. Perhaps our negativity and hopelessness rubs off on them. But then again, it isn't a black or white issue. Encouraging entities of power to reduce climate change to 2 degrees will have different impacts than 2.5 degrees, which will have different impacts to 3 degrees change and so on. Because we might think that keeping climate change to 2 degrees is improbable, doesn't mean we shouldn't keep it as low as possible.
DeleteBut, we have reached a hugely positive agreement of 1.5degrees, translating this into meaningful progress and keeping to promises is a different matter however (especially with secretive nations like China), and only history will tell if we succeed.
Which model were the predictions made with in this instance, Ollie? I would like to be optimistic, but after our seminar I can't help but feel that it will take every single country on this Earth to make sacrifices and compromise in order to reach targets before it is too late. Now COP21 is over, has your opinion changed?
ReplyDeleteHi Katy, good question I probably should've but this in the original post!
DeleteHere is the source: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=FCCC/CP/2015/L.9#beg
It's the summary of the adoption of the Paris Agreement. I've skimmed the 32 page document and the best I could find was that emitting 55gigatonnes of Carbon would keep temperature rise to 2degrees, but they were hoping to only release 40gigatonnes keeping it to 1.5degrees." Throughout the document the wording focuses on a big push to keep emissions to 1.5degrees, and it urges countries to try and achieve it. The aim is to keep temperature rise to that, but it seems possible that we may not keep to it.
In the document COP also "invites the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways".
I'm happy that an agreement has been reached, but now it really is up to the individual countries to keep to such an agreement. It's hard to say without seeing the future, but there is definitely the possibility to look back on Paris and see it as a huge success. On the flip side, we could look back in 20years and say "they all agreed to these measures but never kept them".
What is your opinion on the result of COP21?
Thanks for the source, Ollie! I think my opinion is very similar to yours. In some senses, COP21 was a huge success by getting a global agreement, but in other ways, it was a failure as countries have no legally binding agreements to stick to targets. We must rely on them instead to make changes out of pressure. I hate to think that after COP21 and all the build up, that these targets and promises will fade into the background and be swept under the carpet. I just hope for the planet's sake that it was a success in every meaning of the word.
DeleteWell that's the problem with the COP framework, it's not legally binding. Yes completely agree, the battle with climate change really is coming to the fore now, lets hope we can succeed!
DeleteMy opinion is similar to yours on this I think. Without legally binding agreements it might be difficult to fully analyse the successes but it's not all bad. On a different note, I've been to the island you show in that image!
ReplyDeleteAh I knew you'd been to Fiji, it's good you went whilst you still could! It might not be there for much longer :(
DeleteOn a more serious note, the lack of binding agreements is definitely a concern.