Black Carbon

Black Carbon (BC) refers to the soot emissions from burning carbon, be it a forst fire or a coal power station. From the 2010 United States Environmental Protection Agency report to Congress on Black Carbon, I'm going to study the impacts of our BC emissions. A signficant source of BC is in producing electricity, and in preparing to meet future eclectricity demand the impacts of BC should be considered.

BC is produced by the incomplete combustion of plant matter: fossil fuels, biofuels and biomass. BC is emitted into the atmopshere in the form of fine particles (PM) At present the majority of BC emissions come from Asia, Latin America and Africa.

Global BC Emissions

The direct environmental impacts of BC emissions are absorbing light, depositng on snow and ice reducing albedo (reflectivity), and interacting with clouds. Through such mechanisms, BC contributes to increased tempeatures and accelerated ice and snow melt. Regarding BC interaction with clouds, the formation of atmopsheric brown clouds, surface dimming and changes in the spatial and temporal varaiton in precipiation are further impacts of BC.

Regions such as the Arcitc and Himalayas, already very sensitive environments, are particually vulnerable to the effects listed above. Environmentally, it is therefore important to try and shift away from BC to minimise anthropogenic climate change and protect these vulnerabe areas.

The report to congress concluded that signficant public health benefits can be achieved by reducing BC emissions. In the US:

"The average public health benefits associated with reducing directly emitted PM are estimated to range from $290,000 to $1.2 million per ton PM in 2030. The cost of the controls necessary to achieve these reductions is generally far lower."

On a global scale, WHO estimates that millions of premature deaths a year are caused by PM, with smoke from solid fuels indoors contributing to two million deaths annually alone.

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Fortunately, BC has a relatively short atmospheric lifespan, especially when compared to emissions like CFCs and HCFCs, of days to weeks. This means that stratergies to reduce BC emissions are likely to have an impact within decades. Achieving such a reduction will require specific policy focus. The US is committed to substantial BC reductions by 2030, but at present only produce 8% of global emissions. The most important BC emission reduction opportunities are in the use of diesel fuel worldwide (see the potential impacts of recent Volkswagen diesel scandal), residential cookstoves, and Asian brick kilns and coke ovens.

There are some uncertainties remaining about BC, but the information available gives strong evidence of the adverse environmental and social affects of BC. As such, mitigation of BC emissions should be a priority when considering the future energy mix.

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Feasibility of Solar?

As I was reading a paper by Asif and Muneer about energy supply this is quick comment on the feasibility of solar power. They studied China, India, Russia, UK and USA as these countries account for 45% of the world's population and 49% of the energy consumed. As discussed in the previous post, energy demand is going to increase dramatically.

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Asif and Muneer's based their work on the scenario in which 50% of a country's energy consumption is produced by renewable sources. To power 50% of China a solar PV electricity farm (see this article for summary of solar power) would need to be 61km², 0.005% of the Gobi Desert (where no-one lives and it isn't productive). Similarly, 26km² and 36km² PV farms for India and the US represent 0.01% and 0.014% of the Rajasthan and Baja deserts respectively. Again, no-one lives here, but the potential for electricity generation is huge.

Too often people post about renewable energy being an eye sore, there not being space for it, the land could be better used etc etc. I found this paper especially effective in illustrating the feasibility of solar power. And, it was published in 2007, solar power has got better since.

Nellis Solar Power Plant, Source

Electricity Demand Outlook

Understanding the projected changes to future electricity demand is vital when analysing how we are going to meet such demand.

The World Energy Council's goal is 'To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all people'. This post will be summarising the electricity side of their World Energy Scenarios paper, which I would highly recommend reading. If you don't want to read the 44 page report most of the predicted changes can be understood by glancing at the graphics, which they make excellent use of throughout. It's refreshing to see academics present work like this as it hugely increases accessibility, and given the impact climate change will have on the general public I'd like to see it more widely adopted.

The report considers two scenarios:

World Energy Council

In 2010 global electricity production was 21.5billion MWh. Under a Jazz scenario this is set to increase 150% to 53.6MWh by 2050, and under a Symphony 123% to 47.9MWh. As such, the electricity generation mix has to adapt significantly. It may seem odd the Jazz and Symphony scenarios aren't further apart. That's because the main difference in the report is how that electricity is generated, rather than the amount generated; under Jazz 46% of investment ($19trillion) is into renewable electricity whereas Symphony is 70% of investment ($26trillion). The difference in investment required to follow these scenarios is one of the key factors that will shape the electricity landscape: investment. Following the symphony route, unsurprisingly, costs more.

The rise in electricity demand won't be spatially unilateral. A paper by the US Energy Information Administration predicts that USA energy demand will increase 18% by 2040, 0.8%/year. Yet global electricity demand will increase between 123-150% depending on the scenario. This is because the USA, along with most of the developed world, has 'slowing population growth, market saturation of major electricity-using appliances, efficiency improvements in appliances, and a shift in the economy toward a larger share of consumption in less energy-intensive industries' (US EIA). The exact opposite is happening in the developing world. The rise in electricity demand is driven by Asia, South America, and in the future Africa.

‘This is a time of unprecedented uncertainty for the energy sector. Energy demand will continue to increase. The pressure and challenge to develop and transform the energy system is immense.’ World Energy Council 2013.

Mohan Munasinghe at UCL

It's not every day you get to listen to a Nobel Peace Prize winner.

In my previous post I mentioned that I attended a lecture by Professor Mohan Munasinghe on Friday, Vice-Chair of the IPCC and winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. The lecture covered Sustainomics; Munasinghe's brain child.

The lecture started with a heavy emphasis on the framework being transdisciplinary, rather than multi or inter. This involves experts from multiple disciplines combining knowledge before the project starts, rather than towards the end. It seemed odd to spend so long on the point given that he ended up cutting his lecture short.

Then he got to the serious stuff. Multiple heavy shocks to society could result in global breakdown due to climate change, wealth concentration and unsustainable values. This was followed by some shocking inequality statistics, the 85 richest people are as wealthy as the poorest 3.5billion, and then the context; the Millennium Development Goals are worthy targets but if the rich already consume 1.5x the planet where are the resources for today's poor?

M. Munasinghe

Here Munasinghe spoke about the changing global states, from a bipolar USSR-USA world to the US led global effort to dominate the world politically (G7), economically (US$ global reserve currency), militarily (NATO) and through resource wars. Throughout Munasinghe was highly critical of the US and the capitalist values it supports. In my experience this tends to go hand in hand with supporting sustainability, the drive for growth and profit seem to carry a lot of the blame for our current unsustainable society. Now we are in a multipolar world, with economic and political power driven by multiple centres.

As his eyes lit up, it was clear Munasinghe was approaching his favourite part of the talk: Sustainomics. His first point was that development needs to become more sustainable at corporate and international levels, and that almost any project can be made green. He then moved onto his sustainable development triangle: economic, social and environmental. Here Munasinghe described a man walking vs a man sprinting, one is durable and one is optimal, social and environmental concerns opt for the walking and economic opt for the profit maximising sprint, a very effective metaphor. Both are important and require equal weighting, but not how contemporary society operates. Munasinghe rounded off sustainomics with notable mentions for the need to transcend unsustainable values (especially in the youth) and the role of innovation.

M. Munasinghe

Did I enjoy the talk? Yes. Do I think Munasinghe's view of the potential role of sustainomics is feasible? Not really. Munasinghe kept reiterating the need for projects to meet economic, social and environmental goals and how his framework achieves this. But I couldn't help thinking it was all a bit unrealistic. Are we really going to solve climate change among other problems by meeting all the goals of all parties? Munasinghe is convinced, I'm not so. This mess was created by economic prioritisation over social and environmental, and perhaps a more hardline approach switching such priorities is required. Perhaps investing in sustainable green energy solutions even if they are more expensive than fossil fuel alternatives is required. Still, his optimism is infectious and he certainly knows far more than myself about the topic.

M. Munasinghe

Welcome

Welcome to 'Examination Electricity: How to Power the Future', one of two blogs I'm starting. I'm completely new to the blogosphere; not only have I not written a blog before but also the amount I have read you could count on one hand. The aim of this blog is to explore the how to sustainably meet future electricity demand.

Electricity demand is set to increase as Newly Industrialised Countries get wealthier, and the Developing World catch up. This was one of the key points made by Professor Mohan Munasinghe at UCL on Friday; what room is there for the developing world to develop when the developed is already using 1.5 times the Earth's renewable resources. It is challenge enough sustainably supplying today's demand, yet alone the electricity demand of the future.

This blog seeks to enhance my own, and hopefully others, understanding of how we will meet future electricity demand sustainably.

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