Electricity Demand Outlook

Understanding the projected changes to future electricity demand is vital when analysing how we are going to meet such demand.

The World Energy Council's goal is 'To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all people'. This post will be summarising the electricity side of their World Energy Scenarios paper, which I would highly recommend reading. If you don't want to read the 44 page report most of the predicted changes can be understood by glancing at the graphics, which they make excellent use of throughout. It's refreshing to see academics present work like this as it hugely increases accessibility, and given the impact climate change will have on the general public I'd like to see it more widely adopted.

The report considers two scenarios:

World Energy Council

In 2010 global electricity production was 21.5billion MWh. Under a Jazz scenario this is set to increase 150% to 53.6MWh by 2050, and under a Symphony 123% to 47.9MWh. As such, the electricity generation mix has to adapt significantly. It may seem odd the Jazz and Symphony scenarios aren't further apart. That's because the main difference in the report is how that electricity is generated, rather than the amount generated; under Jazz 46% of investment ($19trillion) is into renewable electricity whereas Symphony is 70% of investment ($26trillion). The difference in investment required to follow these scenarios is one of the key factors that will shape the electricity landscape: investment. Following the symphony route, unsurprisingly, costs more.

The rise in electricity demand won't be spatially unilateral. A paper by the US Energy Information Administration predicts that USA energy demand will increase 18% by 2040, 0.8%/year. Yet global electricity demand will increase between 123-150% depending on the scenario. This is because the USA, along with most of the developed world, has 'slowing population growth, market saturation of major electricity-using appliances, efficiency improvements in appliances, and a shift in the economy toward a larger share of consumption in less energy-intensive industries' (US EIA). The exact opposite is happening in the developing world. The rise in electricity demand is driven by Asia, South America, and in the future Africa.

‘This is a time of unprecedented uncertainty for the energy sector. Energy demand will continue to increase. The pressure and challenge to develop and transform the energy system is immense.’ World Energy Council 2013.